Long-run change · Method note
Independent · source-linked

Level is not momentum

A strong country can be deteriorating, while a weak country can be improving. PolisMetric separates current position from direction.

01 Evidence first02 Separate signals03 Inspect the source
Research

A strong country can be deteriorating, while a weak country can be improving. PolisMetric separates current position from direction.

The snapshot trap

Rankings describe relative position at a point in time. They do not by themselves tell you whether the underlying system is strengthening or weakening.

Multiple horizons

PolisMetric evaluates direction across shorter and longer horizons so recent movement is not confused with durable change. Production construction remains proprietary.

No mechanical forecast

Momentum is descriptive. A recent improvement does not guarantee continuation, and a long decline does not guarantee further deterioration.

Research standard: framework notes explain concepts, interpretation and limitations. Proprietary scoring parameters and implementation details are not published as a replication recipe.